As conflicts escalate in Ukraine and the Middle East, Europeans express growing concern over global volatility. What level of anxiety do they feel, and do they expect the EU to enhance its defence and international role?

With the Ukraine war entering its fifth year and the Middle East conflict ongoing, over seven out of ten respondents from the EU report being «highly worried» about the ongoing conflicts near Europe, according to recent Eurobarometer findings.

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Among the 16 EU countries where this concern was most prevalent, people in Spain (84%), Italy (83%), and Cyprus (80%) showed the highest levels of apprehension regarding these wars.

To date, Cyprus stands out as the member state most impacted by the intensifying conflict in the Middle East.

In early March, Iranian drone attacks targeted British military installations in Akrotiri, Cyprus. One drone caused damage to an aircraft hangar reportedly used by US reconnaissance planes, while the remaining two were intercepted.

Following these events, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, at the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels on 19 March, called for «an open and frank discussion» between Cyprus and the UK about the future of the RAF bases located there.

The European Council has «acknowledged» Cyprus’s intent to start talks with the UK over its RAF bases and declared its readiness to provide help if necessary, as stated in the press release dated 19 March.

What is the European public’s perception of the EU’s reaction to geopolitical tensions?

EU leaders appear divided on the best strategy for Europe’s defence.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has dismissed the notion that Europe could manage defence independently of US support.

“If anyone believes that the European Union, or Europe at large, can defend itself without the US, they are mistaken. It’s simply not feasible,” Rutte declared at the European Parliament in late January.

Meanwhile, France and Spain, despite employing different strategies, agree that Europe must become self-reliant without external interference from non-EU countries.

A majority of EU citizens share this view: around two-thirds want the EU to strengthen its role in safeguarding them from international crises and security threats.

Spaniards, Italians, and Cypriots particularly express concern over the EU’s dependence on defence support from outside the Union.

Conversely, the least anxiety was reported in Slovenia (40%), Latvia, Estonia, and Czechia (each at 41%).

Dependence on external energy sources within the EU

The full-scale war in Ukraine by Russia triggered a European energy challenge, a situation further threatened by the ongoing Middle East conflict.

In light of soaring energy prices since 2022 and their continued rise, EU citizens worry about reliance on energy imports from non-EU countries.

The highest percentages of concerned individuals were observed in Italy (78%), Spain (75%), and Poland (73%), while Denmark (38%), Lithuania (39%), and Sweden (43%) showed the lowest concern levels.

A significant 89% of those surveyed believe EU Member States should present a united front to address current global challenges, and 86% desire a more powerful EU presence on the international stage.