Six years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, its economic repercussions persist, with long COVID disrupting employment for about one in five workers.
Long COVID may generate annual costs ranging from €58.54 billion ($68 billion) to €115.3 billion ($135 billion) across OECD nations, including 21 EU countries, throughout the coming decade, according to new research.
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Aside from its significant impact on personal health and everyday functioning, long COVID places substantial strain on national healthcare systems and economies.
Forecasts extending to 2035 indicate that, assuming optimistic conditions, GDP losses could diminish to minimal levels, while more realistic scenarios forecast ongoing annual GDP reductions of 0.1% to 0.2%.
These values correspond roughly to the total yearly health budgets of countries like the Netherlands or Spain.
The report highlights that direct medical expenses to address the illness are expected to remain elevated, near €9.5 billion annually, until at least 2035.
Nevertheless, the fuller extent of the condition’s consequences remains largely unknown.
In addition to the primary symptoms of long COVID, infection with SARS-CoV-2 raises the probability of developing several chronic diseases—including cardiovascular disorders, diabetes, neurological issues, and autoimmune diseases—which will further burden healthcare services and escalate costs in subsequent years.
The study cautions that these impacts may take years to fully emerge.
Moreover, long COVID could influence children’s developmental progress and academic achievements—elements not yet reflected in economic forecasts.
What is long COVID?
Long COVID continues to affect millions globally. Although fewer than 1% of the population in EU and OECD countries are projected to experience it over the next decade, approximately 75 million people were affected in 2021.
This condition can impair nearly every organ system, causing symptoms such as cognitive difficulties, fatigue, and widespread pain.
In 2021, parts of Eastern and Central Europe experienced the highest disease prevalence.
Currently, around 1.1 million individuals in Bulgaria, 1.4 million in Hungary, and 1.2 million in Czechia live with long COVID.
Reintegration into the workforce
Five years after the pandemic’s start, many long COVID sufferers are leaving the workforce, being absent, or showing reduced productivity due to health issues.
Data indicates that roughly one in five employees with long COVID face disruptions to their employment.
Only Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands have established formal programs detailing care pathways for patients presenting specific clinical challenges.
Enhancing diagnosis, treatment, healthcare services, and social welfare aid for long COVID patients is essential to improve their health, aid workforce reintegration, and minimize economic losses, the report emphasized.
For example, research from the UK underscores workplace flexibility as crucial in supporting long COVID patients, recommending measures such as flexible hours, remote work options, and fostering a supportive work environment.
Other conditions show how much long COVID could cost
When comparing the socioeconomic impact of long COVID to other chronic illnesses, such as multiple sclerosis, the OECD report estimates annual costs of about €2.7 billion for France and €4.8 billion for Italy.
Similarly, if losses attributed to long COVID are compared to the economic burden of stroke, the European cost would approximate €60 billion.
«However, whereas chronic diseases like stroke and multiple sclerosis incur most costs from healthcare expenditures and informal care, the ongoing burden of long COVID primarily stems from decreased labor participation and lost productivity, reflecting a broader macroeconomic effect rather than just medical expenses,» the study noted.