Also in this newsletter: Portugal prepares for a presidential runoff amid severe flooding, and the Epstein files implicate prominent figures in Europe's political circles.
Good morning. I’m Mared Gwyn bringing you the final newsletter of the week. Welcome to Friday.
As critical nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran unfold today in Oman, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert shared with our correspondent Shona Murray that Tehran’s “cunning” negotiation approach should not be underestimated by the US. More insights from this interview follow below.
In the meantime, US-facilitated discussions between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi yesterday led to the exchange of 314 prisoners of war. While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the talks “constructive,” our Ukraine correspondent Sasha Vakulina reports that Russia’s expansive territorial claims continue to pose a significant obstacle.
Speaking live on Europe Today earlier today, the former commander of US Army Europe, General Ben Hodges, noted that Russia “has not altered any of their maximalist demands,” and highlighted that the US “has consistently disregarded the conflict’s origins,” viewing the dialogue as a “major real-estate negotiation.” Watch here.
In Brussels, EU ambassadors were anticipated to receive an initial briefing on the 20th package of sanctions targeting Russia later today, aimed at further draining Moscow’s war resources. However, it remains uncertain if the Commission will postpone the release of the details until next week.
Europe still finds itself excluded from direct involvement in the Ukraine peace negotiations despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to reopen dialogue with the Kremlin.
Last evening, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized Macron’s decision to send his diplomatic advisor Emmanuel Bonne to the Kremlin earlier this week, labeling it “pathetic diplomacy,” and told the French leader: “If you want a serious conversation, just call. Putin always answers.”
The heads of the European Commission and European Council visited Paris yesterday to meet with Macron at the Élysée Palace for talks centered on “security” and “competitiveness,” focusing on preparations for an upcoming summit aimed at restoring Europe’s competitive position against global superpowers.
Macron’s message was unequivocal: speed is essential. The French leader urged Europe to «invest, diversify and simplify, faster» to regain momentum amid rapidly evolving global tensions.
Ahead of next Thursday’s summit on the Belgian-Dutch border, European Investment Bank (EIB) president Nadia Calviño reiterated her call for the EU to establish a unified financial framework known as the Savings and Investments Union.
‘Regime change in Iran must arise internally’ – former Israeli PM Olmert
Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told Euronews’ Shona Murray that Iran’s regime can only “collapse from the inside, not externally.”
“With all due respect for President Trump and his threats, I do not believe even a massive US strike will topple the regime,” Olmert explained on Thursday. “Ultimately, change will come from within the Iranian populace. I hope it happens without a large number of Iranian citizens being killed by their leadership.”
Olmert warned the US to remain cautious of Tehran’s negotiating strategies ahead of today’s nuclear talks in Oman.
“Don’t underestimate the Iranians. They are intelligent, shrewd, manipulative, and skillful players,” Olmert remarked. “They are among the world’s finest negotiators and naturally aim to avert further US military action.”
Regarding conditions in the occupied West Bank, Olmert stated the situation is “completely different” from Gaza because “Israel maintains full control, and the responsibility lies with the Israelis living in the West Bank and their supporting government” for conducting “inhumane actions against uninvolved Palestinians.”
“This resembles an attempt at ethnic cleansing,” the former Israeli PM added.
Watch Olmert’s interview and Shona’s analysis during our live broadcast.
Trump announces ‘full support’ for Orbán before Hungarian elections
US President Donald Trump has explicitly backed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of the critical elections in Hungary this April.
Orbán faces his most significant political threat in fifteen continuous years as centre-right challenger Peter Magyar of the TISZA party — once an ally — leads the polls.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump praised Orbán as a “true friend, fighter, and WINNER,” emphasizing that Hungary-US relations have reached “new heights” under their partnership.
Key figures from Trump’s administration, notably Vice-President JD Vance, have cultivated connections with Europe’s far-right groups, including Germany’s AfD, whose leader Alice Weidel met Vance after a sharp critique of European leaders at last year’s Munich Security Conference.
Trump also controversially supported Argentina’s Javier Milei for reelection last October, coinciding with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pledge of a $20 billion currency swap line to stabilize the peso, widely seen as a bailout.
The contentious US national security strategy published last December declared the administration’s intention to “reward and encourage (Europe’s) governments, parties, and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy.”
Sándor Zsiros reports further.
Portugal heads to presidential runoff with Socialist favourite over far-right rival
Portuguese voters will go to the polls on Sunday to elect a President, marking the first runoff in four decades and indicating a shifting political landscape.
Moderate Socialist António José Seguro is projected to win decisively, according to polls, after several Conservative figures backed him to block far-right candidate André Ventura of the anti-establishment Chega (Enough) party.
Though the presidency is primarily ceremonial, centrist politicians fear Ventura might use the position to launch a government bid. Current polls show Seguro leading with 67% voter intention compared to Ventura’s 33%.
Concerns are rising due to devastating floods caused by Storm Leonardo, which has claimed one life and displaced hundreds. The Portuguese government extended the state of emergency until February 15.
Portuguese media report that Ventura called for postponing the vote by one week to ensure safety, framing it as «a matter of fairness to all Portuguese.» The national electoral commission, however, confirmed the election will proceed as scheduled.
Europe revealed in Epstein files: extent of political elite involvement
The US Department of Justice’s release of over three million additional documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein has sparked resignations and allegations across Europe involving members of the continent’s political elite, reports my colleague Tamsin Paternoster.
This latest set includes photographs, emails, and text messages exposing Epstein’s broad network. Although the DOJ considers these documents relevant to investigations into Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell, they don’t suffice to bring charges against those named. Nevertheless, the files connect several unexpected public figures to Epstein’s circle.
French President Emmanuel Macron has become a focal point for online claims that he sought business or political counsel from Epstein. The records contain hundreds of references to Macron, mainly indirect mentions through media excerpts or political conversations. A few exchanges suggest Epstein tried connecting with Macron via intermediaries, but no proof exists of direct communication between them.
The files also show more sustained contact between Epstein and former French culture minister Jack Lang, his daughter and film producer Caroline Lang, former Norwegian foreign minister Børge Brende, and prime minister Thorbjørn Jagland. Texts reveal former Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajčák discussing women with Epstein.
Regarding Jagland, documents indicate communication with Epstein during his tenure as secretary-general of the Council of Europe. One message has Epstein claiming Jagland would visit his private Caribbean island; others mention potential meetings and personal talks. Jagland has denied any knowledge of Epstein’s crimes.
Tamsin provides more details.
Additional newsroom updates
EIB plans to advance €3bn to offset EU carbon tax impact on road transport and buildings. These funds follow European Parliament pressure to mitigate potential energy bill hikes. Marta Pacheco reports.
Council of Europe leader calls for political and financial support of Ukraine Special Tribunal. Alain Berset urged governments to provide funding so responsible parties for aggression in Ukraine can be held accountable, stating the Special Ukraine Tribunal is “bigger than us.” More here.
Also following
- EU environment and climate ministers convene for informal discussions in Cyprus
- Iran-US negotiations take place in Oman
That’s all for today. We’ll return Monday. Contributors include Shona Murray, Maria Tadeo, Jorge Liboreiro, Sasha Vakulina, Sandor Zsiros, and Tamsin Paternoster. Don’t forget to subscribe to receive Europe Today in your inbox every weekday morning at 08:30.